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And before then the annual four-day Conservative Party conference, starting on September 30, may well see a fresh leadership challenge unless the PM can convince the party faithful to back her.
The best Brexit-pair, EURGBP , shows how damaging the last 24 hours has been for Sterling sentiment with the pair rebounding sharply to a fresh two week high. Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides — Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons — while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.
To contact Nick, email him at nicholas. Fundamental Forecast for Gold: Gold posted a moderate rally this week, trading higher until Friday when the metal surrendered earlier established gains.
Also on Friday, the hourly chart reveals multiple tests of short-term support which dates back to mid-August. A break higher would likely need a significant fundamental development to carry through with conviction, which is rather unlikely with a quiet economic calendar this next week. However, one notable event is present Wednesday. The Federal Reserve is due to announce their decision on the interest rate range which currently rests at 1.
Although the event will be watched closely by investors, markets have already priced in a hike. Falling in line with the current trend of 25 basis point hikes, CME futures have the probability of an increase to 2. Historically, gold demand wavers as equities provide strong returns. As US equities push to record heights, gold interest should dip. It could be argued the ongoing trade wars should stoke some safe haven interest but this has not been seen in the past few months, with gold posting a multi-month decline.
Conversely, retail positioning at IG remains net-long on gold. View how our clients are positioned on gold and other assets. All in all, it looks as though gold is positioned for a break lower. Considering the limited upside potential, waning safe haven demand, strong equities, and priced in Fed decision, we could see gold test support dating back to in the upcoming week.
Fundamental Forecast for CAD: The past week saw the Canadian Dollar weaken towards 1. The Bank of Canada provided a relatively balanced statement, leaving the door open for a hike in October. As we look towards next week, the Canadian Dollar may see somewhat of a quieter week from the data front with a lack of tier 1 data to drive price action in the CAD.
Fundamental Australian Dollar Forecast: The Australian Dollar has risen to three-week highs against its big US brother, getting perhaps even more of a respite than I predicted this time last week. This is perhaps surprising in an environment of terrible trade relations between Washington and Beijing.
However, some investors are clearly betting that events will stop short of a full-blown trade war, and that might be translating into a bit of current Aussie Dollar strength. That said the coming week may not offer Aussie bulls a lot more to charge at. They have been there since August and, according to rate futures market pricing, are expected to stay put for the rest of this year and all of next. The rate gulf has kept AUD under broad pressure for much of this year and, although that long downtrend line is now perhaps under threat, it is still in place.
Of course, the Australian Dollar is like all other currencies very much in thrall to global risk appetite and, if that holds up, it may well continue to gain. We also hold educational and analytical webinars and offer trading guides, with one specifically aimed at those new to foreign exchange markets. Be sure to make the most of them all. Previously, the New Zealand Dollar was on pace to deliver its best performance against the US Dollar in a week this year so far. It could thank a better-than-expected New Zealand GDP report and market pre-positioning for the risk of a relatively dovish Fed.
The week ahead boasts a couple of notable event risk starting with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand interest rate announcement. Overnight index swaps are now pricing in a Despite the rosy GDP data, annualized rates of growth have slowed from the strong performance seen in Meanwhile the country has been experiencing mild disinflation since The markets are widely anticipating a rate hike and that may very well be.
But they are also strongly pricing in another one for December. This would help lift the US Dollar once more. With that in mind, while the New Zealand Dollar has edged out a remarkable rally, there is the risk that it could come to a halt or reverse course. The outlook will be bearish. Just getting started trading currencies? To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or ddubrovskyFX on Twitter.
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A demo account is intended to familiarize you with the tools and features of our trading platforms and to facilitate the testing of trading strategies in a risk-free environment. Results achieved on the demo account are hypothetical and no representation is made that any account will or is likely to achieve actual profits or losses similar to those achieved in the demo account.
Conditions in the demo account cannot always reasonably reflect all of the market conditions that may affect pricing and execution in a live trading environment. When there is deviation between actual market rate and value reflected in forecasted rate, there is usually an opportunity to enter the market.
No lag in the data: Contrary to other indicators, there is no delay. A very useful tool to combine with other types of analysis of technical nature or based on fundamental macro data, like trading positions , rates table or live chart. Significant sentiment data , based on a representative sample of 25 to 50 leading trading advisors for 5 years. Do not follow a single guru but rather a balanced group of well chosen experts. The Forex Forecast Poll offers a condensed version of several expert's opinions.
Only outlooks are considered that have been committed to publication and therefore have an influence on the market. A tool for Contrarian thinking: People instinctively follow the impulses of the crowd. You can read sentiment extremes and avoid being one of the herd.
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